Trump Fights, China Works

Container throughput at Chinese ports highest on record. - China's Ministry of Transport (Bloomberg, 3/10/26)

The Chinese public understand themselves to be living in a G2 world and they expect the United States to meet them there. - Nick Zeller, Senior Program Associate at the Carter Center, speaking at the Asia Society (South China Morning Post, 3/11/26)

Mainland Chinese citizens feel more favourable towards Taiwan than they did six months ago, support a hardline stance towards the US if another trade war erupts and view Russia and North Korea  most positively and Japan least positively among their neighbours, according to a new survey by the Carter Centre and Emory University. [...] 'The Chinese public are ready to deal but not back down,' the report said." - Ibid.

Chinese trade data for January and February should shock people in Washington, DC, but may not, considering how busy they are with Iran and Donald Trump.

China's exports jumped 21.8% year-on-year in the first two months of the year, its imports were up 19.8%, and its trade surplus rose to US$213.6 billion following a $1.19 trillion surplus in calendar 2025. The export and import growth rates were far above the reported 6%-7% median estimates of private-sector economists. China combines January and February data to compensate for the varying impact of the long Lunar New Year public holiday.

Export growth was led by autos and semiconductors - not broken out in the official statistics, but both up about 67% (or more, in the case of semiconductors), according to the calculations of private-sector economists. Chinese government data shows the following growth rates: ships up 52.8%, high-tech products up 26.9%, and mechanical and electrical products up 24.3%.

China's General Administration of Customs listed machine tools as a noteworthy contributor to the growth in mechanical and electrical product exports. This may point to a problem for Japan in the future, but Japanese exports of machine tools to China rebounded in 2025 and have remained strong this year, according to industry sources. China is also the largest overseas destination for Japanese machine tools (and industrial robots) - a positive indicator for both countries.

By region, Chinese export growth rates in January-February were: ASEAN up 29%, Europe up 28%, South Korea up 27%, Latin America up 16%, Africa up nearly 50%, and the US - the only region in which there was a decline - down 11%. These figures include both government and private-sector data.

For the same period, total Chinese trade (exports and imports) was up about 20% year-on-year with ASEAN, the EU, and Latin America and up 34% with Africa, but down 16.9% with the US.

Container throughput at Chinese ports was the highest on record, according to China's Ministry of Transport.