As members are aware, we recently released our predictions for 2021 in a FiReSide event; you can view that recorded event, as a benefit of membership, here.
It is important to note that the release of this information took place on December 3, 2020; already (see below) we are seeing announcements and events that fit into these patterns and predictions.
In this week's issue, my intent is to provide a guide to my thinking on the year ahead. As in past years, this begins with laying out the basic landscapes, which, thanks to the Wuhan virus, is a bit different. (Why am I reverting to this original name? Because the CCP has mounted a massive global propaganda campaign aimed at convincing Chinese and world citizens that the virus first showed up in Italy, or America, or - anywhere but China.)
Also, instead of putting the main ideas into smaller paragraphs, I am trying the experiment of making larger, clearer statements, highlighted for effect. The idea here is to move from a detail-driven, very long conversation to getting the main points across and allowing enough intellectual "breathing room" for members to stop often, digest, make inner comments and arguments, compare with your own ideas of what's coming, and come to useful conclusions.
Here are the landscapes, followed by the Top Ten Predictions for the year ahead.
Theme for 2021: Power Struggles
The Economic Landscape
The All-Empowering, All-Splintering Internet: Power struggles occur on every level, in every way, worldwide.
Elections now are just opportunities for throwing out the elected.
On Covid / Wuhan:
Vaccinations are in time to stop an economic meltdown, but not to stop massive death tolls. Why did the deadlier 614G genetic variant of Wuhan also occur in (eastern) China? Why aren't all nations of the world demanding the source story of the Wuhan virus? This matters greatly.
"Data Constipation": Tools and data aren't meeting in the search for cures and diagnosis, thanks to greed, publication primacy, etc.; while open-sourcing of Wuhan data is publicized, the reality is the opposite.
On China:
A continued ramping in political, economic, and military aggression. Massive Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) power push, despite reduced spending, both in small countries and large: in the South Pacific, the Caribbean, Africa, Eastern Europe, the Indian Ocean, and vs. larger countries - the US, France, Germany, Australia, the UK.
A continued pattern of China capturing, destroying, or replacing international agencies and alliances. This will be a bald power grab, just as Biden is trying to give these international groups new vigor.
In general: Dangerous and desperate behavior, not from triumph and power rise, but from aggressive actions, now that the world sees China for what it really is.
On Arctic Tensions: With China pressing in, via Russia and Greenland; and Russia pushing out, tensions ramp. Greenland is the belle of the ball.
On Energy:
Coal is China's addiction, driving BRI. Just calculate GHG with and without China.
Oil's day is done, in terms of pricing; $50 remainsthe new peak price, and everything below.
Natural gas gets a 10- to 20-year transitional growth period during the renewable-energy push, taking share from coal (except in Chinese plants).
On the US:
As divided as in April 1861, by the Net: in money, race, politics, Covid / Wuhan - divided even when being wrong is deadly serious.
Dollar remains weak, helping exports.
Equities remain strong, and bonds weak.
The US will have a quicker economic return than expected, based on vaccines.
Expect a strange demographic and political split as a result of vax vs. anti-vax populations, with vast and predictable death rate differences. Where do you want to live / play / eat / work? Red and Blue states play out in black and white, as live or die.
On Other Countries
UK (Last year's note: UK. IF Brexit, Hard Brexit likely. David Cameron, the worst PM in British history since Neville Chamberlain. No offense, Neville.)
Scottish independence becomes a real alternative, with Northern Ireland right behind. Boris Johnson follows in David Cameron's footsteps, in a slow-motion opera first scripted in Moscow, and paid for by Beijing.
The good news: Britain strikes acceptable trade deals with the US and fellow Commonwealth countries, led by Canada and Australia.
Germany. The trend, bit by bit, is away from CRINK(China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) and toward the West. Under fledgling new leadership, Germany struggles to reconcile its prior market realpolitik of loving and trading with everyone (Russia and China) to recognizing Russia's threat to domestic tranquility and NATO, and China's demand for dominance as the cost of export deutschmarks and market access.
CRINK. China and Russia accelerate military exercises and political cooperation, from the Beaufort and Arctic seas to the South (China) Sea. North Korea remains China's hand puppet, confusing Biden's team as it did Obama's.
Middle East. Iran is focused on Israel and vice versa.
Turkey. She loves me, she --- Erdogan pays for his own indecision: Is Turkey sectarian or Islamist? Russian or NATO? Democracy or autocracy? Time is running out in NATO and EU patience. Erdogan goes for Russia.
Russia
Even the Russians finally get tired of Putin. As with China last year, the world now sees the Real Russia, as Putin increasingly sends fighters and bombers into US airspace, increasingly wages infowar with chosen democratic targets, is increasingly outed for murdering his opponents, and increasingly runs out of BS explanations to his people about all of it.
For Putin, increasing fame becomes decreasing trust because of the increasingly negative effects on his decreasing performance - with the exception of disrupting stable democracies, which increases, even as his support continues to decrease.
South Korea: Strong performance in 2021, as Samsung rebalances against China in tech and telecoms. SK is now paired with Taiwan as the lead global chip manufacturers.
Japan: Strong financial performance under Suga,who remains as conservative as Abe would wish, while building stronger ties with the US and the Quad. Military conversion is under way. The yen and equity markets are stronger in 2021.
The Technology Landscape
Chip Wars:
The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp.(TSMC) is at terrible risk. It is difficult to state adequately the danger of this critical technology leader in chips being housed all in one country, in one place, in one company - claimed, and lusted after, by China.
Intel falls into irrelevancy. NVIDIA / ARM owns the category, belying their size differential. Well played, Jen Hsun.
Tech Schism: The SNS Mantra: In the post-information world, every economic sector is driven by technology, and IP is its asset.
Therefore: economic splits are caused by tech and IP ownership splits;
Which lead to political and military splits.
Summary: Global technology markets continue to split in two, between China and BRI captives vs. the free world.
AI: Becomes the center of gravity in the technology rocket ship.
Space: From Quality to Quantity.
Elon doesn't stop at one moon landing. Lunar cities.
Megasat constellations. 12k x ??
SpaceX dwarfs Launch Alliance.
Renewables: 2021 becomes a banner year for renewable energy. Driven by international, national, and state mandates, renewables see record market shares worldwide, and massive public / private investment. The Paris Accords are back on track.
SNS PREDICTIONS: TOP TEN PREDICTIONS FOR 2021
Re: 5G: The US military and the FCC solve the country's biggest broadband bottleneck, by finding a new way to cooperate on the sale and use of 5G spectrum.
The Biden administration is immediately (and reluctantly) pulled into creating an international technology-based security alliance. Biden's lack of tech chops (and interest) becomes painfully obvious.
We see a rush into private social networks, as election fatigue and Zuck anti-privacy ethics achieve new lows. A new business ecosystem of communities crossed with platforms is born.
A general and well-founded mistrust of AI grows, even as new AI applications explode in number. We learn all about what can go wrong with AI, not just in data bias, but also in mathematical fails that lead to harm on a business scale. AI accountability becomes a career choice.
Healthcare finally moves beyond today's "standard of care" practices (at best, a dangerous legal foil) to third-wave AI in more "evidence-based" models. This begins a turn toward massive improvement in medical outcomes. What's next? "Pattern-based healthcare."
Vaccinations for Covid change everything, faster than the epidemiologists and economists expected. Reasons include increased individual confidence in shopping, entertainment, and working, as opposed to the medical establishment goal of vaccine-induced herd immunity. This leads to a quicker rate of economic return and creates new sector opportunities for investors who are hunting for strong firms with Covid-hammered stocks, such as:
Aerospace (Boeing)
Air Carriers (Southwest, Alaska Airlines)
Hospitality (Marriott)
Entertainment (AMC, owners of live events)
Autonomous AI: These vehicles accelerate their move into the mainstream:
Tesla's AI just works better - much better - than average humans. And Autonomous AI works better with electric vehicles.
Trucks and Cargo Carriers provide platforms for yet quicker adoption; tougher range issues, but stronger financial incentives.
Cars in safer "racetrack" configurations proliferate worldwide, becoming well-accepted long before open road permissions.
Drones expand but continue to find limited commercial use; Jeff Bezos was right.
Semi-autonomous weapons of all kinds are developed behind the scenes, with the trigger event still held, in theory, by humans.
Electric transport goes mainstream.
Virtually all major carmakers ship electric cars, with step-function increases in market acceptance by consumers. This marks "the most important pivot in transport since the Internal Combustion Engine took over from steam." The US (in innovation) and China (in subsidized programs) lead the parade, with Germany, the EU, and Japan following far behind.
The first electric planes have successful commercial pilot projects.
Starlink leads the way to a new world of omnipresent bandwidth, allowing the other half of the human population access to the Net and eventually making Elon Musk the richest person on Earth, and beyond it.
XAI becomes a reality. Companies move past the largest problem in AI today, that of the "black box." Explainable AI helps the EU and other governments enforce fairness in understandable AI outcomes. This illustrates the critical importance of "the power of knowing why" regarding complex solutions that were previously unavailable in business and science.
I hope that our members find these landscapes and predictions useful in the coming year, and that you, your families, and your companies benefit from their application.
Your comments are always welcome.
Sincerely,
Mark Anderson
QUOTES OF THE WEEK
China Is National Security Threat No. 1
Resisting Beijing's attempt to reshape and dominate the world is the challenge of our generation.
By John Ratcliffe
Dec. 3, 2020 1:20 pm ET
As Director of National Intelligence, I am entrusted with access to more intelligence than any member of the U.S. government other than the president. I oversee the intelligence agencies, and my office produces the President's Daily Brief detailing the threats facing the country. If I could communicate one thing to the American people from this unique vantage point, it is that the People's Republic of China poses the greatest threat to America today, and the greatest threat to democracy and freedom world-wide since World War II.
The intelligence is clear: Beijing intends to dominate the U.S. and the rest of the planet economically, militarily and technologically. Many of China's major public initiatives and prominent companies offer only a layer of camouflage to the activities of the Chinese Communist Party.
I call its approach of economic espionage "rob, replicate and replace." China robs U.S. companies of their intellectual property, replicates the technology, and then replaces the U.S. firms in the global marketplace....
China also steals sensitive U.S. defense technology to fuel President Xi Jinping's aggressive plan to make China the world's foremost military power. U.S. intelligence shows that China has even conducted human testing on members of the People's Liberation Army in hope of developing soldiers with biologically enhanced capabilities. There are no ethical boundaries to Beijing's pursuit of power.
China is also developing world-class capabilities in emerging technologies. Its intelligence services use their access to tech firms such as Huawei to enable malicious activities, including the introduction of vulnerabilities into software and equipment. Huawei and other Chinese firms deny this, but China's efforts to dominate 5G telecommunications will only increase Beijing's opportunities to collect intelligence, disrupt communications and threaten user privacy world-wide. I have personally told U.S. allies that using such Chinese-owned technology will severely limit America's ability to share vital intelligence with them....
Consider this scenario: A Chinese-owned manufacturing facility in the U.S. employs several thousand Americans. One day, the plant's union leader is approached by a representative of the Chinese firm. The businessman explains that the local congresswoman is taking a hard-line position on legislation that runs counter to Beijing's interests—even though it has nothing to do with the industry the company is involved in—and says the union leader must urge her to shift positions or the plant and all its jobs will soon be gone.
The union leader contacts his congresswoman and indicates that his members won't support her re-election without a change in position. He tells himself he's protecting his members, but in that moment he's doing China's bidding, and the congresswoman is being influenced by China, whether she realizes it or not.
Our intelligence shows that Beijing regularly directs this type of influence operation in the U.S. I briefed the House and Senate Intelligence committees that China is targeting members of Congress with six times the frequency of Russia and 12 times the frequency of Iran....
Within intelligence agencies, a healthy debate and shift in thinking is already under way. For the talented intelligence analysts and operators who came up during the Cold War, the Soviet Union and Russia have always been the focus. For others who rose through the ranks at the turn of this century, counterterrorism has been top of mind. But today we must look with clear eyes at the facts in front of us, which make plain that China should be America's primary national security focus going forward.
Other nations must understand this is true for them as well. The world is being presented a choice between two wholly incompatible ideologies. China's leaders seek to subordinate the rights of the individual to the will of the Communist Party. They exert government control over companies and subvert the privacy and freedom of their citizens with an authoritarian surveillance state....
Beijing is preparing for an open-ended period of confrontation with the U.S. Washington should also be prepared. Leaders must work across partisan divides to understand the threat, speak about it openly, and take action to address it.
This is our once-in-a-generation challenge. Americans have always risen to the moment, from defeating the scourge of fascism to bringing down the Iron Curtain. This generation will be judged by its response to China's effort to reshape the world in its own image and replace America as the dominant superpower. The intelligence is clear. Our response must be as well.
Mr. Ratcliffe is U.S. director of national intelligence. The above first appeared in the WSJ.
"We've also seen an uptick, which was planned and we predicted, that China would now re-vector their influence campaigns to the new [Biden] administration.... And when I say that, that malign foreign influence, that diplomatic influence plus, are on steroids, we're starting to see that play across the country to not only the folks starting in the new administration, but those who are around those folks in the new administration. So that's one area we're going to be very keen on making sure the new administration understands that influence, what it looks like, what it tastes like, what it feels like when you see it." - William Evanina, Chief of the Director of National Intelligence's counter-intelligence branch; quoted on BBC.com
"Those five or six arrests were just the tip of the iceberg and honestly the size of the iceberg was one that I don't know that we or other folks realised how large it was. More than 1,000 PLA-affiliated Chinese researchers left the country. Only the Chinese have the resources and ability and will" to conduct such alleged political and economic espionage and "other malign activity." - John Demers, SNS member and Chief of the Justice Department's National Security division; ibid.
"No regime has more riding on its ability to influence the perceptions, policies and priorities of foreign populations than the Chinese Communist Party. The [Chinese Communist] Party's overseas propaganda has two consistent themes: 'We own the future, so make your adjustments now.' And: 'We're just like you, so try not to worry.'" - Matthew Pottinger, President Trump's Deputy National Security Adviser; on VOA Tibetan News
"The EU is proposing to establish a new EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council (TTC). The aim will be to ... strengthen our technological and industrial leadership and expand bilateral trade and investment. It will focus on reducing trade barriers, developing compatible standards and regulatory approaches for new technologies.... As part of this, there should be ... closer cooperation on ... investment screening, Intellectual Property rights, forced transfers of technology and export controls." - From a European Commission paper to EU countries mapping out a strategy for a transatlantic alliance against Beijing; quoted on Politico.com
Note: This affirms the beginning of an SNS prediction, and occurred after our Predictions release date of 12/3/20.
"It's very hard to align rules on products that already exist, but it is fairly easy to do it on emerging technologies." - A senior EU Commission official; ibid.
"We welcomed feedback until December 4. We aim to communicate the results of the consultation soon." - A spokeswoman for MSCI, noting that it had sought feedback from market participants on the order, including any practical implications on the use of MSCI indexes and whether any changes to existing indexes or the introduction of new indexes "may be necessary or helpful to maintain the investability of relevant MSCI indexes and assist investors to comply with the order"; quoted on Reuters.com
SNS warned members about MSCI's decision to include unaudited Chinese stocks in its index, forcing US investors to come along for the ride. It didn't take long for that dumb move to blow up.
"'China is innocent!' has been all over the state-run media in China in recent days. News outlets have taken Dr. KekulF's [see more below] research out of context to suggest that Italy, not China, is where the coronavirus pandemic began. Photos of him have appeared on Chinese news sites under the above headline." - Quoted in the New York Times
"This is pure propaganda." - Dr. Alexander Kekulé, Director of the Institute for Biosecurity Research in Halle, Germany, stating in an interview that he has repeatedly said he believes the virus first emerged in China; ibid.
"He noted that for a global pandemic, the starting shot was fired in northern Italy." - From a report by China Global Television Network, an international arm of the official Chinese state broadcaster; ibid.
"China uses everything for propaganda. I started to realize that I had to do something about it." - Dr. Kekulé; ibid.
"A billion people in China thank you!" and "There are not many scientists who dare tell the truth." - CCP-planted video clips of his remarks about Europe, already spread widely on the Chinese internet. Thousands of people were sharing state media articles about his research
Welcome to The Real China.
Re: the annual China-EU CEO and Former Senior Officials Dialogue:
"We held three very successful editions of this dialogue that takes place every year, alternating in Brussels and Beijing, Regrettably this year's dialogue ... had to be canceled." - BusinessEurope spokesman Peter Sennekamp, after China tried to force the EU to drop certain participants; quoted on WSJ.com
The Real China, again.
"For almost two decades now, graphene's theorized properties have been viewed as the 'holy grail' diaphragm material for loudspeakers." - Ora [headphones] cofounder Ari Pinkas, explaining that speaker designers usually have to compromise on either stiffness, lightness, or damping
"When graphene burst onto the scene, it was a wonder material that would change the world. To be honest, if you talk to a lot of graphene people, they still think it will change everything. What's happened is, over that 10-year period, you've had a lot of companies trial it. You've had a lot of end users explore it. Realistically, only now and over the next couple of years we're reaching that inflection point." - Richard Collins, a Principal Analyst at the advanced-technology market research firm IDTechEx; quoted on Fortune.com
ON OUR RADAR
Top Ten Predictions for 2020
Autonomous electric (AE) cars move from a technology platform story to one of the great global economic impact stories. While overall car sales remain down in the short term as a direct result of China's contraction, the industry's current retooling will result in future years of new growth and market domination in dozens of technology markets.
2020: It's time to talk about "The Real China" as Xi's ambitions for China become clear. The idea that it's OK to trade off quarterly profit performance for partnering with the most dangerous and repressive country in the world becomes a non-starter for an increasing number of global business leaders.
The process of disengagement from The Real China has its practical start in this year.Privacy takes its proper place in e-commerce. Having awakened to Facebook's foibles and Zuckerberg's devious word evasions, people are now sensitized to being Zucked, with FB as Exhibit A. Even more encouraging: while half of its users just don't care, the others do.
Not Using FB becomes a Thing. People invent excuses for why they use it at all, in niche form. While new laws are passed against its tactics worldwide, FB becomes the spiritual ghetto of the social-network city.The whole "home network" idea takes major hits, even as it grows. Some folks have 10 Echo Dots, cross-talking Siri, Alexa, and Hey Google appliances in every room, while others put their phones in the freezer. This home privacy invasion market becomes the physical battleground over world privacy rights.
The Year of Cloud Confusion: Is it the AI Cloud, the Healthcare Cloud, or ...? Cloud providers find themselves desperate to differentiate their data centers through new acquisitions weekly, racing to bring on their own proprietary Pattern Recognition Processors, as they urgently chase more money than they can imagine, through hallways they are just now designing.
Net division will continue to harm society worldwide, pitting big companies against countries, people against people, and countries against one another. CRINK vs. Rest of World will destabilize the planet using the net.
Amazon emerges from the big tech scrum as the company that will just keep on growing forever, no matter what. Copycat Alibaba, eat your heart out.
The Boeing story becomes iconic - not just for the firm's well-publicized safety lapses, but as an international takedown target. Who next will the Chinese Communist Party target? Cars, chips, and smartphones, with terrific stakes at hand. What happens to China if Huawei loses? To Germany with a declining Daimler or Volkswagen? Who will the new winners be, and what is it worth to their home countries to make it so? Boeing has a huge return in 2020.
The ride disruption business model capitulates, with higher pricing, real differentiation, and corporate bodies everywhere. Electric scooters are headed for the dump, together with rental bikes of every color, Cars2Go that didn't, Zipped cars that got unzipped, and other flashy transport flotsam that either die, get bought, or limp off into the dayglo night. One of 10 survives by charging enough to profit, but at horrible historic capital cost, certainly never to be reclaimed. Oh, and electric bikes do well.
Major discoveries are made in cancer and computing together, as accuracy and scale of integration into safe and efficacious treatments dwarf the past pace of advances. Life is complex, and it requires complex mathematics to be its proper partner.
Graded Accuracy on Past SNS Predictions
Past Predictions:
2006-2019 Average = 95.17%
Est. 2020 Year Score = % 100 (Could decline based on degree of Boeing return by 12/31)
Total Average since 2005, including 2019 Predictions = 95.49%
Math:
(95.17 x 14 +100) / 15 = 95.49%
INVNT/IP
Updates on nation-sponsored theft of intellectual property
China
North Korea
General Interest
ETHERMAIL
Re: SNS: TAKING ACTION: THE ART OF SAVING A SPECIES
SNS: "THE VIRAL ECONOMY": KITTING OUT
SNS: THE NEW JAPANESE-ANGLO ALLIANCE
Mark / Evan / Sharon et al.,
The latest report inspired two quick comments.
First, you might also include the Ben Franklin quote: "We must, indeed, all hang together or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately." While talking about revolt against Britain he meant "hang" literally, the analogy extends to death by environmental harm.
Second, the ELI effort sounds like an outstanding example of "supply suppression." I am hoping the films and other activities also work on "demand suppression" -- that is, to reduce the demand for the activities that lead to the harm. On one hand, that might include films to increase the shame of eating fish that require eradicating a species to catch; on the other, it might use technology to develop substitutes -- "vega-fish" just like "vega-meat." The most effective efforts include parts of both and go beyond yelling at people on both sides to "stop that!" or even also catching and punishing those that do. They also include providing or pointing out alternatives -- alternatives for both the suppliers and the buyers.
For tax reasons, I can donate more if I wait until the start of next calendar year. I will be considering your efforts in January.
Rollie Cole
[Author, Wholesale Economic Development
http://preview.tinyurl.com/wholesaleeconomics
Austin, TX]
Subj.: Re: Time for a deep state revival
Mark and Evan,
Interesting.
Easily located sources state that energy directed weapons are being developed or used by the US, the UK, China, Russia, Turkey and Iran.
Ours might be better than theirs. Theirs might be copies of ours.
And if we believe what we say we believe, by the time America builds a couple dozen icebreakers, they won't be necessary.
Scott Foster
[Author, Stealth Japan
Analyst, LightStream Research
and SNS Ambassador for Asia Research
Tokyo]
Scott,
Erm...yes. Not sure what the debate here is gentlemen, but if you look into Russia's history of using advanced microwave weapons (even in their simplest form, thank you, Mr. Brin) I think you will relatively quickly come to the opinion that, just perhaps, the weapon is of that origin. If you are then wondering who would use such a weapon of Russian origin, in Cuba, then in China, one might next ponder who would most want to disrupt US-Cuba and US-China relations.
I'll let you go from there. Nothing that has come out lately has been a surprise, honestly. Even when State was trying to make it look good, it wasn't that odd. I've been joking about being microwaved by the Russians for years, if we're being honest.
I think we have tougher nuts to crack my friends. This one, I believe, was always pretty straightforward.
Attribution, even, wouldn't necessarily change a whole lot in the geopolitical spectrum.
Now, who has 15 militarized icebreaking ships. Could use about twice that many.
Regards,
Evan Anderson
[CEO
INVNT/IP
www.invntip.com
Deputy Program Director,
Future In Review
Seattle, WA]
Subj.: Re: Time for a deep state revival
Mark,
Russ Daggatt
[Founding General Partner
Denny Hill Capital
Seattle, WA]
Mark,
The sabres are always being rattled. Pohl's speculation seems to be today's fact.
Please elaborate on the Wuhan virus.
We were clearly warned. China deployed the PLA to Wuhan, evidence of a severe health crisis that idiot Westerners took as inexcusable authoritarianism. Democratic Taiwan, terrified, withdrew its people and locked down hard. Trump told Woodward he knew it was serious in February, but didn't warn us. Woodward finished his book before revealing this in September.
Scott Foster
Mark,
Friday, State Department began distributing a study of "Havana Syndrome," reported hits on diplomats and CIA officers etc. of some mysterious force that causes a high-pitched, cicada-like sound while serving abroad and then experienced a bevy of disorienting symptoms like hearing loss, nausea, headaches, and difficulties with memory and balance. The resulting affliction even forced some of these officials to retire. The most likely culprit is microwave radiation.
"CIA analysts have argued that Russia is the most likely malefactor given the country's long history of experimenting with pulsed radio frequency technology and some evidence that Moscow has previously used a microwave weapon."
David Brin
[Author and Physicist
and SNS Ambassador for Science Fiction
http://www.davidbrin.com
Encinitas, CA]
Mark and Scott,
[Founder, Santa Barbara Angel Alliance,
SNS Ambassador for Angel Investing,
and Board Member, Pattern Computer Inc.
Santa Barbara, CA]
Subj.: Re: Quantum advantage demonstrated using Gaussian boson sampling Physics World
Mark and John,
Very interesting. Thanks.
David, what do you think?
Scott Foster
Subj.: Re: An idea how to get a win-win-win for Inauguration Day
Mark,
Allow me to suggest putting Trump on trial for Depraved-Heart Murder - causing death as a result of depraved indifference to human life.
Animal, fish and plant life as well. Double Depraved-Heart Murder.
Scott Foster
Mark,
Just a note in hope that you might know some folks in DC who could pass along my first wave of unusual "suggestions."
Included are several ONE SENTENCE bills that the House of Representatives might pass, that would have value, that might draw GOP defections, but also put those Georgia senators in a visible bind.
Out of all the suggestions I posted, one in particular has been popular, online. See it summarized below... but I'd welcome comments on the rest.... and maybe one of you knows someone who knows someone...
=====================
A vast, colorful and SAFE Inauguration ceremony, filled with fresh portent and meaning, could be had if Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris were to take the oath - and speak - from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial.
ADVANTAGES:
1 - A much larger crowd could be spaced-out safely along the entire Mall... especially with big screens on the Washington Monument... and with repeated exhortations to use hand held flags to distance. Even distanced, the whole mall filled with flag wavers would be historic. Especially since tens of thousands will be coming, anyway.
2 - The symbolic value of Harris taking her oath on the Lincoln Memorial steps would be stunning, with MLK and Lincoln beaming down and VP Harris getting a terrific moment... then waving toward the Capitol: "Over to you, Joe! I mean Mister President!"
3 - No sane person wants both Biden and Harris to be in the same, predictable public locations, for a while. For obvious reasons.
My longer version of this idea is given below.
I hope someone will pass this along to Dr. Allen -- and to Majo Varghese and Ms. Wilson and Ms. Cancela and Ron Klain.
With cordial regards,
David Brin, PhD
author of The Postman and EARTH and The Transparent Society
https://www.davidbrin.com
==========
Think this through: (1) America needs a celebration on 1/20/2021! People will show up at the Capitol, no matter what. Vast vistas of flag-waving celebrants would do the nation good, especially in contrast to the recent past, but... (2) we're in a pandemic and responsible distancing is essential. (3) So? Everyone expects a change from tradition, so be creative! (4) it is insane for Biden, Harris and Pelosi to be in the same place, given the kind of paranoic jabber spewing across the QAnonsphere.
.... .... Put all that together and a SOLUTION COMES TO MIND. One with tasty possible symbolic import.
HAVE KAMALA TAKE HER OATH ON THE STEPS OF THE LINCOLN MEMORIAL!
Symbolically, it'd be a huge way to say - with both Lincoln and MLK gazing down - 'we've come a long way, baby!' And the swearing-in by Sonia Sotomayor would be a good offset to spotlighting John Roberts. But there's more...
Picture Harris giving her speech, then waving down the long, long Mall at the Capitol and calling out "Over to you, Joe!" past a vast crowd that now has plenty of room to spread out! Hand out a bazillion flags and flag masks and say "Use the flag to make a social distance circle. Let America's flag protect us, as we mean to protect and reclaim the flag!"
The images would be spectacular, denying the fox-o-sphere and Trump any "crowd size yammer rationalizations. It would also establish Kamala as a star and a voice of her own, not just a warmup act!
And then there's an added, somewhat paranoid reason. Keep her away from Joe! At least for most of this vulnerable ceremony in the open, so the 'proud-boogaloo jerks' and their backers won't see any tempting opportunities to violently spoil our day!
Oh, and sure, why not let Nancy Pelosi host her own segment outside the White House, not only for safety, but to annoy the petulant toddler, who will know that any final tantrum on his last half-day will be diluted, no matter which site he chooses to throw one. The cameras can just cut away. To scenes of joyful relief for the Republic.
May your holidays be joyful and 2021 be wonder-filled -
David Brin
PS... Ron Klain shared high school AP classes with my wife, Cheryl! That and $3.65 will get me a cuppa Joe at Starbucks!
Mark and David,
Your scenario of Harris being sworn [in] at Lincoln's Memorial is exciting, David. Hope they have the imagination to consider it.
Also like the Truth and Reconciliation Commission idea. Lord knows we have a lot to atone for. If S. Africa could do it in the face of Apartheid, we should be able to handle Trumpism.
Hope you can get people to hear you.
Prof. William E. Halal, PhD
[Prof. Emeritus
George Washington University and The TechCastProject.com
www.BillHalal.com
Washington, DC]
Subj.: Re: Time for a deep state revival
Mark,
Russ Daggatt
Subj.: An Insider Breaks With Beijing
Mark,
[duh!]
The Party That Failed: An Insider Breaks With Beijing
Patrick Hogan
[NASA Emeritus Earth Scientist
Project Lead,
Returning to a Better World
Mountainview, CA]
Subj.: NY Times: Russian hackers suspected
Mark,
Is this third rate propaganda, typical NYT bull****, or an indication that the US government is grossly incompetent, that the leading IT nation in the world is incapable of protecting its own systems?
Or are Russians simply more intelligent than Americans?
Scott Foster
Scott,
I think none of the above. In the world of cyber, major state teams can always hack into the target, on both sides. Defense is essentially impossible. Just ask FireEye.
Mark Anderson
Subj.: Re: NY Times: Russian hackers suspected
Mark,
Crum Scott. After 4 years appointing shills and even actual Russian agents to 5000 posts atop our government, you think the civil servants didn't lapse now and then and let their appointed bosses get their hands on some keys?
I am astonished that the officers and civil servants managed to block the putsch as well as they did!
==
Meanwhile see:
Daily Beast: Imploding MAGA World Turns to Civil War Fantasies, Secession After Supreme Court Disaster
"Many of the president's staunchest supporters believed that the Supreme Court, with its Trump-appointed justices, would eventually come to the president's rescue in his failing election fraud crusade. But, with their hopes crushed, some of the wackiest sycophants took to Twitter and alt right-friendly app Parler to call for civil war or secession—all because their guy lost."
Set aside the snowflake whining and the execrable treason. I have long said this Phase 8 of the US Civil War might tip into a hot Phase nine, especially since that would delight both foreign enemies and oligarchs desperately fearful of a new Transparency Era. No, put all that aside; we need to confront these dreamers with tough love:
1) Remind them that their cult's all-out war against every fact-using profession metastasized until their enemies now include the men and women of the intel, FBI and military officer corps, all of whom the MAGAs now attack as "deep state" enemies because they continue to defend a nation based on facts and rule-of-law, as they did when they won the Cold War and the War on Terror. And almost all of those dedicated folks - except a few frothing crazies - are fleeing the GOP in droves.
2) Likewise, the millions of other fact people hated by MAGAland may be nerds, who MAGAs used to bully in Junior High... only now they are the folks who know cyber, nano, genetics, bio and nuclear stuff. And medicine. So how is this 'civil war' supposed to go, exactly, if a hot phase gets us innovating, for personal and national survival?
Also bear in mind that most of the NEW gun owners since 2001 have been minorities and liberals. (Not volume of purchases of course... idiots compensating for their physical lacks buy far more guns than they have trigger fingers.)
3) You think we'll let seceding New Confederates take with them the blue island cities and universities and tech belts that generate all their wealth... and who want to remain American and voted that way? We will hear their appeals and you won't get them, nor regions with large minority populations. Have a look what that does to Texas, Mississippi, Alabama and the Carolinas. Then ponder how you'll replace the massive subsidies that Blue America sends to prop up Red Zones.
4) Remind them of the words of the greatest Texan: "Let me tell you what is coming. After the sacrifice of countless millions of treasure and hundreds of thousands of lives you may win Southern independence, but I doubt it. The North is determined to preserve this Union. They are not a fiery, impulsive people as you are, for they live in colder climates. But when they begin to move in a given direction, they move with the steady momentum and perseverance of a mighty avalanche." - Sam Houston.
We have been incredibly patient, but heed the man. Let grownups in to fix the mess... or else stand up, like the men you pretend to be, and put up ACTUAL WAGER STAKES on any random ten of Trump's registered 40,000 lies. BET us on any of the fairy tale hate -incantations you are feverishly reciting, like magic spells to stave off reality. Have you the guts to back up any of the sewer spew with cash on the bar?
I thought not. Blowhard, bushwhacking cowards. I'm old. I knew Robert E. Lee.
You are no Robert E. Lee.
David Brin
Subj.: Re: NY Times: Russian hackers suspected
Mark,
That is a good point, David, but the problem is older than that and, on the face of it, inexcusable. Let's hope Biden gets it fixed in short order.
On the positive side, while the news naturally focuses on the rapid development and availability of Pfizer's vaccine, the manufacturing and logistics are absolutely first rate. American manufacturing does not have to be rebuilt from nothing. And we certainly don't need to depend on China for any product of importance unless China is the only source of the raw materials.
Scott Foster
WHERE'S MARK?
On January 21, Mark will be appearing in a speech / interview format at the 16th Technology Alliance Group Predictions Event, online. Also on January 21, from 2:30-4:30 PT / 5:30-7:30 ET, Mark will be co-hosting the next FiReSide virtual intelligence event, free to SNS members and open by ticket to others. Title and speakers coming soon to your Inbox.
In between times, he will be wondering how to account for the near-fanatical preference by sheep, goats, and donkey for alfalfa hay over the local stuff, without actually tasting them.
