"Chinese President Xi Jinping has pledged to achieve the 'reunification' of China and Taiwan, calling Beijing's long-held goal 'unstoppable.'

"In a New Year's address delivered a day after China's military wrapped up war games around Taiwan, Xi on Wednesday invoked the 'bond of blood and kinship' between Chinese people on each side of the Taiwan Strait." – Al Jazeera, January 1, 2026

For years, whispers have flown from ear to ear in the halls of Washington, DC about when, exactly, Xi Jinping intended to act on his promise to seize Taiwan. 2027 has long been the quiet consensus in the intelligence community.

That made strong sense and was based on careful collection of data over decades on how many war materials, of which types, could be assembled by that year that would enable the PLA to finally cross the Strait.

But adversaries rarely follow the rulebook we plan for them.

Since 1949, Beijing has dreamed of invading Taiwan. As Chairman Mao prepared the PLA and worked to build enough ships for an attempt, his massive spy ring on the island was caught. In the words of Ian Easton, "The invasion of Taiwan was put on hold until Beijing could figure out what to do." Xi Jinping has renewed that dream. His main and final goal has long been to take over the island.

The question of when has just been answered: it begins now.